Monitoring report on the evolution of the main pro-Kremlin voices on Facebook. Early warning

9 January 2023

This report will be looking at recent evolutions in the share of voice of the main pro-Russian actors on Facebook. It is important to note that the main voices who promote toxic narratives about the war in Ukraine are, by and large, the same voices who promote far-right narratives and the same people who have promoted anti-vaccination narratives. All these narratives generally align with the Russian interests in Romania. The purpose of Russian information operations is not necessarily to sway the Romanian population to regard the Kremlin’s actions favourably, but rather to sow discord within Romanian society and between Romania and its allies. As such, it is relevant to also look at their relative influence more broadly, as we do in this report.

Disinformation in a regional context during the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has allowed some nationalist groups and even regional governments to reopen discussions on territorial revisionism and tensions with neighbours, but also to use the energy crisis that the war has created in Europe to criticise the West and attempt to demobilise popular support for Ukraine.

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Evolution of disinformation and information manipulation in Romania, in the context of the war in Ukraine

Russia’s war against Ukraine has opened a brand-new front for disinformation and propaganda. ‘Byproducts’ of war, such as economic shortages and the energy crisis are all exploited to deepen the anti-Western sentiment manifested by part of the Romanian population, and to widen the internal divisions in Romanian society. The influx of refugees fleeing the war (and some of the decisions the government in Kyiv took regarding ethnic minorities) is exploited by pro-Russian propaganda in addressing ultra-nationalist/anti-Ukrainian sentiments entertained by part of the Romanian population.

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Is Romania ready to combat disinformation and communicate effectively?

GlobalFocus Center has undertaken a series of interviews with relevant experts, including representatives of state institutions, politicians and independent experts in order to determine the state of government and civil society preparedness to identify and counter information manipulation and malign influence, gaps in preparedness and􀀃knowledge, and based on that, to recommend courses of action. Based on these interviews and further research we have reached the conclusions outlined below.

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Propaganda Without Borders – A study of pro-Kremlin propaganda among far-right and radical voices in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Serbia

GlobalFocus Center (Romania) has partnered with Political Capital (Hungary) European Western Balkans (Serbia) and  Reporters’ Foundation (Poland), in a joint effort to check out how Ukraine-related disinformation is reflected and used within the far-right, ultra-nationalist and extremist communities to advance goals consistent with Russian interests.

Territorial revisionism in the wake of the War in Ukraine – A report on radical and far-right discourse

When speaking of territorial revisionism, the situation is unique in each country. This is partly due to the different frontier grievances held by nationalists and far-right groups but also due to the variable degree of compatibility between these grievances and Russian interests and propaganda.

Still, nationalist discourse in each country had similarities even before the war started. In every country, nationalists have a dream of Great(er) Serbia / Romania / Poland / Hungary and they feel they have been historically wronged and frustrated in achieving this dream.